Drupal.org site statistics
Like it or not, but with 2007 around the corner, it is almost reflections and predictions time again. With that in mind, you might find the graphs below to be a source of inspiration.
The past growth in absolute numbers. The "January 2007"-kink is due to the fact that data for December 2006 is not yet available at this point.
The past growth in relative numbers. In 2005, the number of nodes and comments grew by more than 300%. In 2006, the number of nodes and comments grew by more than 230%.
A growth projection using a polynomial fit (multiple regression). Simply put, the correlation coefficient R-square, is a measure for the quality of the fit. R-square can assume values between 0 and 1, where a value of 1 indicates a perfect fit. Bear in mind that a statistical fit may be anything but an accurate prediction of future growth.
Regarding the last graph, my favorite quote reads:
"Telling the future by looking at the past assumes that conditions remain constant. This is like driving a car by looking in the rearview mirror."
Though I do think that the graph is valid for 2007.
December 6, 2006 - 12:52Ignorance of the random walk hypothesis will bite you.
Red Toph
December 8, 2006 - 08:44No it doesn't bite me, behavioral finance is way more interesting. And I do think you make the error of generalizing a (non)behavioral financial paradigm to other "sciences" like "future prediction" or discussing graphs in general.
December 16, 2006 - 22:31Do the comments statistics include issue follow ups?
December 6, 2006 - 16:47No they don't. The script used is in my $HOME on drupal2.
December 7, 2006 - 22:34Some other interesting metrics would be the growth in projects (modules), growth in developers with CVS access, and growth in CVS commits.
December 6, 2006 - 19:32More information is available at http://groups.drupal.org/node/1980.
December 7, 2006 - 08:45So, what does Buytaert's Second Law say again? :)
Seriously, interesting stuff.
December 6, 2006 - 20:17At this year's Drupal conference in Vancouver, I observed that with every major Drupal release, the size of the Drupal community doubles. Some people are jokingly referring to that observation as Buytaert's Second Law. I would never call it a law myself (it is obviously bound to change), but so far it seems to be holding up. ;)
December 7, 2006 - 10:29But what's the first law? Drupal rocks? :)
December 7, 2006 - 13:01I don't know. Other people make up this stuff. :-)
December 7, 2006 - 13:03'plumb your way in'? :P
December 7, 2006 - 22:07Awesome! I did notice that the Drupal "online guests" counter disappeared a while back. It was fun watching that climb this past year. I also have been following Drupal's Alexa stats and traffic chart, which mirror your findings here.
Go Drupal!
:D Alex
December 7, 2006 - 23:25It was removed to allow for the groups events feed to be more available to people in the community.
January 6, 2007 - 00:27Go Drupal, go.
I think the quality and stability of Drupal is the main factor for people's trust into Drupal. I hope the progressive development of Drupal's community is going to continue at the current speed.
Thank you for sharing this story with me!
December 8, 2006 - 13:55Post new comment